Avolon Publishes White Paper on Aircraft Retirement and Storage Trends

HAITEC hangar (© HAITEC)
HAITEC hangar (© HAITEC)

Avolon (Dublin), the international aircraft leasing company, issues a White Paper containing updated and expanded analysis of key factors that influence the economic life of commercial jet aircraft, building on an earlier study issued in September 2012. The analysis addresses aircraft retirement and aircraft storage trends and considers the outlook for the current stored fleet of commercial aircraft. The March 2015 and the September 2012 White Papers are available on the Avolon website: www.avolon.aero

Among the major conclusions reached in this 2015 White Paper are:
• The patterns of retirement behaviour have not materially changed since 2012, with average retirement age stable at or around 25 years and more than 50% of fleets remaining in service beyond 25 years
• Premature retirement of aircraft at significantly younger ages continue to be isolated occurrences
• The average retirement age of most fleets has continued to increase over the past two years
• Nearly 85% of stored in-production aircraft return to active flying, compared to only 30% of out of production types and less than 25% of stored aircraft over 15 years old.
• Overall, almost 40% of the current stored fleet (800 aircraft) are expected to return to active service
• Fewer than 200 incremental stored aircraft (less than 1% of the global active fleet) could also be re-
activated in response to sustained lower fuel prices
• The potential for deferred retirements linked to cheaper oil is estimated between 150 and 200 aircraft per annum
• The resulting impact on new deliveries equivalent to no more than 5% to 10% of production, which OEMs are well-placed to manage

Dick Forsberg, Avolon’s Head of Strategy and author of the study comments:
“This paper further develops Avolon’s Thought Leadership agenda, which is dedicated to sharing with the industry our analysis and insight relating to important topical issues. This new paper combines an update of what became a hotly debated subject in 2012 with a detailed investigation into the movement of aircraft into and out of storage facilities. It validates our view that the average retirement age of an aircraft remains stable at around 25 years. The paper also determines that, in response to a sustained period of lower fuel prices, fewer than 200 incremental aircraft could potentially return to operation and a similar number may see retirement deferred – extremely small numbers in the context of the global fleet.”


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